Why Work?

This says it all.

Steve Wynn Takes on Washington

Las Vegas's Steve Wynn in a portion of an interview a week of so ago.  Moving part of Wynn's Headquarters to Macau Wynn knows what's in store here in America.  http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=1506508223 

He is not kind to politicians and who can blame him.

Leave it up to a couple of Farmers to come up with a simple solution

First they (BP or someone) need to stop the damn leak.  But in the meantime how to prevent the oncoming damage is of great concern.  This seems simple and appears to work. But who would bet me that the government in it's wisdom will go for some costly solution rather than a simple low cost method that may actually help farmers.

Add to that something I read the other day.  It is alleged that BP has used a chemical that causes the oil to coagulate and actually sink below the surface.  Someone said in another internet source that there are large wads of oil as much a 1300 meters beneath the surface now.  These plumes of oil might stay at depth for many years, hanging on reefs and such until a storm or something breaks them up and sends them ashore.  Possibly thousands of miles away from the source as they wallow around moving with the ocean currents unless hung up on obstructions.  This is a mess of vast proportions without question.


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Longer term Look and Ideas on S&P

Is this the big one?  Only time will tell but let's take a look at the larger picture technically.  The chart below is the monthly on the S&P mini futures.  The price has apparently found the 50 period moving average as key resistance and we never made it to the 1233 61.8 Fib retracement which I was expecting.

FW's measured market guage the MMG gave a sell signal on the May bar as the CCI seems to be completing a snapback down.  This snapback down is when the White (5 period or short term) CCI achieves pretty good breadth and suddenly closes back to the Blue line which is the longer term CCI study 50 period.

A note about almost all these studies is that they measure some parameter at several speeds or time periods and place the visual indications together on one chart study.  Everything I have ever looked at indicates that everything operates in cycles or waves.  Not just stocks but life itself seems bound by certain limitations on cyclical motion.  Stocks are no different.  The question is simply WHEN will directional changes occur.

My friend FW calls this MAP patterns which is Moving Average Patterns.  What we may see on this chart is the scenario I have drawn in with the dashed red line.  One of the classic MAP failures happens when the price fails to break through the 50, fails, gets a bounce off the 20 (yellow line) and makes another attempt at the 50.  This next attempt at the 50 will be a big deal to me.  Because should it fail the price is likely to at least go back down and test the previous low (662) and there is a good chance that should this occur it will set a new low.  On the other hand should it firmly break out of the bound of the 50 SMA it will go on to test a new high.  This is why this particular time for traders is quite dangerous ..... Anything Can Happen.

Click on Chart to Enlarge  

Below is another and most likely scenario.  I say this because the CCI and MMG have put in fairly low points and though they both may drift down some more, at some point they will likely change direction.  The TEMA which serves to keep me in trades longer has yet to produce a sell signal on the monthly.  So at this time I will have to say this is still a correction not a full blown failure.  So there you have two scenarios.  Right now I like the last and more likely.  As always this is NOT investment advise just the rantings of a guy that plays with charts and numbers.

 

Got it Fixed and the Market is like a bucking Bronco

Think it was something from my computer security that was not allowing me to post.

The market volatility has been really dangerous for anyone not quick on their game.  We are getting similar to 08 daily moves with moves equivalent to one day occurring in just hours or minutes.  The ES having 30 point swings can be a place to get well or get destroyed.  If you are not used to this volatility and have some plan that deals with that it's best to just get out of the way.  I have said before that cash is a position.  Looks to me like we may have made a somewhat double bottom on the daily ES and SPX.  If that is the case we get the bounce here up to the area of 1142 on the ES over the next week or so.  Failing there would make for a head and shoulders pattern and set up the really big failure many are looking for.  I will add a chart with comments in a bit.

                                                  CLICK ON CHARTS TO EXPAND

The above is the daily chart.  I have placed the monthly pivots on it.  We are coming back to test the S3 which will be resistance.  The blue dashed line is the 150.  The chart is the June futures and those with the capability need to look at the 2 day, 4 day and weekly to get a firmer idea of what my thoughts indicate.  We are certainly in a position where ANYTHING can happen.  I think all this was brought on by the debacle in Europe without question.  Money flees to safety and even though the US ain't exactly safe it's a damn sight better than the EU at the moment.  I don't think this will last because money knows, it's just that temporarily this is the safest place.

FW's MMG gave a long signal the other day and the TEMA is trying to.  All those little green dots on the TEMA tell me that it was time to stop being short but has yet to confirm a long position.

A double bottom is indicative of a surge upwards.  This could develop into a head and shoulders pattern and give us the big failure we have been expecting by July or August.  You can see the volatility by all the long bars showing the abnormal daily ranges and if you are with lots of experience you can make a pile of dough on these wild rides.

On the Weekly chart I have long used the support from the lows from July through September of 2008 as a very strong obstacle.  That is about 1202 on the ES and we did not survive a push through that point in April. The weekly still has us in a downtrend but trying to correct.  Again, we are trying to turn up on the daily but that is not confirmed, so that will have to be the first thing that happens.  Then we see where the weekly goes. The weekly 50 period MA provided the platform for the bounce and although be have gone below that we have NOT had a weekly close below the 50 week Moving Average.  But that's the nature of Moving average Patterns.  It may take two or three attempts to break but when it does Bam.  The down moves will be sudden and violent and unless you are on the right side of the trade when it happens you will be squashed like a bug.  This has probably wiped out a bunch of trading accounts of novice traders already.  Those who have been lucky enough to have been on the right side of trades and now flush and getting cocky.  Those getting cocky will eventually get their ass handed to them as well if caution is not exercised.  I know I have been both cocky and broke so take heed.  I'm sure I have bored you enough for now...... Later

Sidewinder

Cant post last few days .... something wrong with the dashboard. I can make a title but it wont let me enter into the body. I will work on it

Word Clouds and Congress

Wordle is a toy for generating “word clouds” from text you provide.  I’m sure most have seen examples, I know I have but until recently, did not know how to create the cool graphics and did not even know it had a name. 

Here I found an interesting thing to do with Wordle.   The Pew Research Center asked people to respond to the question;  Describe Congress in one word.  The resulting word cloud was interesting to say the least.  The larger the word in the cloud the greater the percentage of response. Only 4% responded with something positive.  (likely family members and staffers IMO) Larger words were Dysfunctional and Corrupt.  Go figure.  Anyway give it a look here http://pewresearch.org/databank/dailynumber/?NumberID=982

Just for grins I put together an example for Sidewinder's view.  Note I have a high opinion of myself LOL. Neat stuff nontheless.

This is about the general feeling I get percentage wise among folks I communicate with. If this in anyway represents the true feeling of the American public how the hell is it they keep on holding their positions?  Could it be we simply have no other choice?  Is it that the voting system we have in place has been figured out to insure desired outcome by those in the know?  How can fewer than 500 people have so much power over 300 million.  Is this the way the Republic was intended to function?  Why do I have this sinking feeling that something's just not right?

Blogs and demographics

Wow, I can't believe the way consistency effects readership.  Actually I can, because who wants to come to a blog to see the dame old crap all the time.

I got a little busy with real life and slacked off on posting for about 10 days.  I was actually surprised at the number and diversity of the visitor here in the first Month.  23 countries, 6 continents and more hits than I ever expected.  Just now looking at the stats I see the numbers fell steadily over the last ten days, falling 80%.  Interesting observation.  Hopefully the numbers will return as I post more.  Or actually it makes no real difference to me as I am not in the blog business for a living so just an observation.

To those that come here I appreciate your visiting and reading my drivel and maybe someone somewhere has gotten something of value by indulging me.