Friday, May 28, 2010

Got it Fixed and the Market is like a bucking Bronco

Think it was something from my computer security that was not allowing me to post.

The market volatility has been really dangerous for anyone not quick on their game.  We are getting similar to 08 daily moves with moves equivalent to one day occurring in just hours or minutes.  The ES having 30 point swings can be a place to get well or get destroyed.  If you are not used to this volatility and have some plan that deals with that it's best to just get out of the way.  I have said before that cash is a position.  Looks to me like we may have made a somewhat double bottom on the daily ES and SPX.  If that is the case we get the bounce here up to the area of 1142 on the ES over the next week or so.  Failing there would make for a head and shoulders pattern and set up the really big failure many are looking for.  I will add a chart with comments in a bit.
                                                  CLICK ON CHARTS TO EXPAND
The above is the daily chart.  I have placed the monthly pivots on it.  We are coming back to test the S3 which will be resistance.  The blue dashed line is the 150.  The chart is the June futures and those with the capability need to look at the 2 day, 4 day and weekly to get a firmer idea of what my thoughts indicate.  We are certainly in a position where ANYTHING can happen.  I think all this was brought on by the debacle in Europe without question.  Money flees to safety and even though the US ain't exactly safe it's a damn sight better than the EU at the moment.  I don't think this will last because money knows, it's just that temporarily this is the safest place.

FW's MMG gave a long signal the other day and the TEMA is trying to.  All those little green dots on the TEMA tell me that it was time to stop being short but has yet to confirm a long position.

A double bottom is indicative of a surge upwards.  This could develop into a head and shoulders pattern and give us the big failure we have been expecting by July or August.  You can see the volatility by all the long bars showing the abnormal daily ranges and if you are with lots of experience you can make a pile of dough on these wild rides.

On the Weekly chart I have long used the support from the lows from July through September of 2008 as a very strong obstacle.  That is about 1202 on the ES and we did not survive a push through that point in April. The weekly still has us in a downtrend but trying to correct.  Again, we are trying to turn up on the daily but that is not confirmed, so that will have to be the first thing that happens.  Then we see where the weekly goes. The weekly 50 period MA provided the platform for the bounce and although be have gone below that we have NOT had a weekly close below the 50 week Moving Average.  But that's the nature of Moving average Patterns.  It may take two or three attempts to break but when it does Bam.  The down moves will be sudden and violent and unless you are on the right side of the trade when it happens you will be squashed like a bug.  This has probably wiped out a bunch of trading accounts of novice traders already.  Those who have been lucky enough to have been on the right side of trades and now flush and getting cocky.  Those getting cocky will eventually get their ass handed to them as well if caution is not exercised.  I know I have been both cocky and broke so take heed.  I'm sure I have bored you enough for now...... Later


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