Wednesday, August 11, 2010

ES Just can't punch the 50% Retracement

The S&P mini futures just can punch through the Fib retracement drawn on the big failure in 2008.

Today, Wed. August 11, as soon as the cash market closed the boys kept selling it off another 3 points into the 4:15 close.  I guess some figure to keep shorting as the overnight punches it in the nose some more.

The ES made 5 daily attempts and never closed above that 50 almost a mirror repeat of the June attempt
For more and another chart click to read the rest.

As usual, you need only to click on the chart to see a blown up version. The red trend line is one I placed back in July

The failure in June resulted in about a 10% drop we shall see if this turns out anything like that. If it does my target would be around 1017 down to test the July low of 1002. Failing that sets up some interesting thoughts. Just guessing but the rest of August could just be ugly.

My targets are 1082 at the 50 SMA 1071, 1055.50, 1039.84 (old scalp lines) 1017.57 38.2% retrace and of course 1002.75 the last low.  I have a grid line at 1044 also not depicted which could be another support.  I fully expect each of the above to provide a skirmish line in the pit and as always ACH (Anything Can Happen)  and gold looks like it's just along for the ride.

Tell ya, nobody knows what's going on in reality.  All this is uncharted waters and anyone that claims to have all the answers is struck off my list of reliable and onto the BS list.  While technically nothing is new, if you try to place any fundamental reasoning behind any of this you would be just kidding yourself.  The world is changing daily and rapidly.  No need to be surprised when you are surprised. :)

The Euro is getting major whackage also at this time also.

Another ES chart with The MMG (measured market guage) and the modified Fisher Transform arrows.
Both produced sell signals yesterday the 10th.  The Fisher arrows are the large purple arrows on the upper chart.  Fisher's on green candles for sell I ignore and if alone I only perk up.  I have noticed that when you get a fisher arrow AND a MMG arrow together it is well to pay attention and worth a shot.

No comments:

Post a Comment