Thursday, April 22, 2010

The Bigger Picture

We are still in bear environs IMHO and riding a corrective wave over the last 13 months.  This is a monthly snapshot which clearly show the Linear Regression decending.  the red channel depicts the current trend. Overall I think the ES could easily go to 1400 and a correction to 1040is is nothing to become upset over and in fact it will be sold by MSM as healthy and normal.  Only problem is how do you know for sure if a down move is going to be the "big one"  or just a correction.  You don't and that's why I trade only short term in this market.  I would not enter anything with out an exit plan.  Good advise in any environment, but most especially in our current markets.  Next big bull/bear fight will occur around 1290 to 1310 on the ES E-mini.

It should be apparent that I am convinced we face massive failures in just about all things financial sometimes in the future and although bias towards the eventual failure I still have to trade the trend in the meantime.  I keep wracking my brain as to the best way to capitalize on the eventuality of the failure but this remains still a moving target.  FW.s MMG has a hockey stick on the monthly but the TEMA trend is in full up mode making me think any correction will be minimal at this point from a monthly standpoint. We are just one global event away from a real mess.  Hope some of you can get something out of this.  Enjoy.  Just click on the chart for an expanded view.


  1. I say forget the hockey sticks, looks to me like this market is riding the Mobo train to heaven LOL. I never could get into the hockey sticks anyway, I kept getting whipsawed around whenever I tried to trade off them but that's just me.

    By the way, the MMG line is a 6 period Williams %R. So now we know what one half of the indicator is.

  2. You have the code no problem to figure it out. The other is slow. one fast one slow works with many. As I have said before find an indicator that what ever it is you trade obeys and use it until it no longer works. The all will stop at some point there is no Holy Grail. Your skills in adapting and position sizing is the Grail. :)