Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Day ends Rather flat despite Cheerleading

In spite of the talking heads cheerleading the markets the ES and the rest close either basically flat or down a bit today.  The notes on the screen shot taken just after the cash close show the gap up on the overnight and the almost dead nuts hit on the 61.8 Fib retracement taken on the top in 07 to the bottom in march 09.  That's the semi-big Picture.

 The chart  is a 10 minute.  The big red and green horizontal lines are the day's Opening Range aka the OR.  The OR center or mean is the pale white dashed line. When we hit that 61.8 it just dropped out and snagged a bounce off the 20 and started back up..... Then the President speaks.   I guess the traders didn't like what they were hearing this is usually reserved for Bernanke.  Matters not they slammed it back down as soon as Obama opened his mouth.  It's really too funny.  While I was typing this it blew through the 150 SMA (dashed blue line) in after market so, we will see what the over night and London open does. I will stick my neck out here and say that tomorrow will likely be a down day on the ES.  I would point out that while the market shows and open and close only about .25 apart this puppy "traveled" about
23 total points or "handles" today.  a decent trader might have captured at least half of that and a half-assed one should have got out with 5 points.   That's not a bad living if done right.

Click on chart to enlarge

Just a bit of trivia here ..... I have a study of over 500 gaps such at today's gap up of 12 points.  The chance of the gap filling on any Tuesday is 77% and a gap of 12 points was 60% chance of filling, now 66% so maybe it does pay to keep track of these things and allow some bias in accordance with the knowledge.  

1 comment:

  1. Even a half-assed trader should have got out with 5 points - you're funny! You make it sound so easy! Though I suppose with the sell signals showing it was kind of a no-brainer to short off that fib level. ;)