Tuesday, December 7, 2010

S&P Futures hit the 61.8 Retracement

On the news of the tax cuts being extended along with additional unemployment benefits the market responded positively and Kudlow and the girls at CNBC are once again "giddy".   These guys really pump and pump.  On well.

 Now we have reached the 61.8 retracement point I am more guarded than ever for a good size correction. This could be sudden or if kept up until Christmas It could go to new highs without a correction.  This is what makes all this so interesting.  There is no rule of law that once this Fibonacci level has been reached a failure will occur, it is simply a level that produces failure many times.  My vote is for about a hundred point drop on the S&P futures and about 1,000 points on the /YM or  Dow Futures.  This is the probability, not something cast in stone.  I will wait to enter short over the next few days as it could drift higher.  Stops placed at a reasonable point in case I'm wrong.  Bottom picking and Top picking can be a "fools game" but I do enjoy it.

I will say it again, if you make a trade decision based on anything I write here then, you are an idiot.  The technical situation can change in a matter of minutes and throw all this out the window.  I only comment on the short term futures markets for the most part as this is a traders market.  Anyway I expect a move back to 1146 from where ever this ES settles over the next few hours.  It may take a while  to play out.

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