Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Here's my take on Gold and Silver for the time being

The correction seems to have begin and can possibly last through the middle of March depending on how deep the correction will be. Charts below I put together over the weekend but just did not have time to post yet. Will make further comment later as I am still pressed for time.

Gold hit the first target today and it the correction continues through mid March we could certainly see 1250 gold.  Likely though is a hold up at the $1300 level for psychological reasons.  This bull trend in the PMs is not over by a long shot and a correction here is actually healthy for the metals IMO.  Shake a few out and resume the march.  key is to accumulate as the blood runs and sell into the rallies, but you all know that.

As usual click on the charts to enlarge them.

Silver targets are 25 then 23 then a shade over $20 per ounce over the next six weeks.  If it follows the trendline it would take until mid March to reach the big trend line where I would look for a bounce.

Interesting observations on gold, silver, the Euro and USD.  gold has had the 20 SMA riding on top of the 50 SMA since September.  Today the 20 made the crossover below the 50 confirming the down move.  Silver is about to cross though it has not as of today (Tuesday).  The Euro which has been beaten down since November has made the turn and is headed up since the 12th of the month.  I think this weakness in Gold is due to the Euro turning around.  Lots of $$ jumping off the Euro for the safety of gold may have been keeping gold in the upward move.  

A likely path for Gold

One really has to pay attention to the currencies to trade any of the metals and the futures markets. I don't like the currencies and don't trade them but they do reflect the public sentiment towards governments and future.  Therefore I have to watch them as they are all fiat currencies and all are basically worth no more than the faith the public put into them.  That's a hell of a thing to think about actually.  Nonetheless, they can be the driving force behind major market changes.  The Euro in particular I watch as I remember in the the beginning something told me inside that this was a bad idea for Europe.  You got all these countries based on the Euro and not one can really control its own currency for the benefit of their people.  Just seems fishy to me.  Anyway I wait for the Euro to just implode one day and that day may not be that far off.  Just saying.  

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