Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Are the Markets Reaching a Turning Point?

  Since its been a while from my last posting I thought I would put up a chart or the S&P E-mini and express my thoughts about what’s going on now in the Markets.  

  All those horizontal lines in the chart represent Fibonacci points based on the wave one of the S&P emini (ES) in 2002.  To complicated to explain here but sometimes I use the S&P Fib based on the wave 1 from the 1929 crash so these factors are basically one fib series extended harmonically to produce support and resistance points into the future based on Fibonacci numbers of major events.  so there.

  The big red line is a major support/resistance point.  This daily chart shows the ES blowing through this like a knife through butter, upwards at the first of this year then coming back to test that point in March producing a low.  Then 3 waves up to make a high, and then the confusion down, sideways and a pretty good collapse.  this down move to test the March low of 1241.25 is either completed or is still testing.  The price came down to that major support and price got to 1259.50 stopping just short of the Fib line at 1259.43.  Missing it by .07 cents and is now bouncing.  The ES closed today dead on the 9 SMA (red MA line) so it can be anyones guess as to what it's likely to do over the next few days but if this is to continue downward a solid test of the March low will be necessary.

  Also (not depicted) the bottom of a regression channel from the March of 09 low is around 1244-1250 So in a continued down move that will be a target.  Bottom line is we have to break through that fib line at 1259.43 to extend this test of the low.  I would be very careful here as this could be the end of the down move for the time being.  Any speculation on direction at this point for me is simply a guess with no indication either way.  So, I guess it would depend on the news and action in Europe.  If money pours into the USD and it keeps going up then the markets will keep moving down otherwise a move to new highs.

  There is one other possibility in the future, and that would re-link the USD to the market and they move in unison but that's for later.  For now the inverse relationship in the dollar and the markets simply means the value of the dollar is dropping and the value in the market is actually holding its own but since the price is expressed in dollars it will naturally go higher.  The value in the markets may be actually down or even, if expressed in other currencies.

Oh, I forgot to add:  The red vertical line running through yesterday's candle is a Fibonacci Time extension taken from October 07 (When this mess really started) to the March 09 low.  That line is the 161.8% point which is also a Major Fib point for trend changes.  I find it interesting that this point in time coincides with Martin Armstrong's end and beginning of, a new 8.6 year wave on his count. 

                                                Click on chart to enlarge

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